The PMD, also known as the Met Office, stated that a previously "well-marked low pressure" over Indian Gujarat had intensified into a depression after moving over the northeast Arabian Sea and now stood at a distance of about 340km from Karachi.
"The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours and move northwestwards," the alert said.
Under the influence of the system, widespread rain, wind thunderstorms with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall and squally winds were likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, Mirpurkhas, Thaparker, Umerkot, Sanghar, Shaheed Benazirabad, Nausheroferoz, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Dadu, Jamshoro, Sukkur, Larkana, Jacobabad, Shikarpur and Ghotki districts from Thursday afternoon till late evening on Oct 2 (Saturday), it added.
Widespread rain, wind thunderstorms with scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely in Gwadar, Lasbela, Awaran, Kech, Khuzdar, Kalat and Panjgur districts of Balochistan from Thursday to Sunday, the department said.
The department predicted that sea conditions would remain rough till Sunday and advised fishermen to refrain from venturing into the water until then.
"Torrential rains may generate urban flooding in Karachi, Badin, Thatta, Hyderabad, Dadu, Mirpurkhas, Shaheed Benazirabad, Lasbela, Somiani, Ormara, Pasni, Gwadar, Turbat and Jiwani," the Met department said.
It further warned that the windstorm may also damage vulnerable structures.
It said that the PMD Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre, Karachi was closely monitoring the system and told authorities concerned to remain on high alert during this period.
In a video update, weatherman Sardar Sarfaraz reiterated that the weather system was likely to cause heavy rainfall and gusty winds, and would make for treacherous conditions at sea.
He said that there was a threat of urban flooding in Karachi, Hyderabad, Thatta, Badin, Nawabshah, Dadu, Ormara, Pasni and Jiwani, adding that low-lying areas and islands could also go underwater.
He compared the oncoming cyclone to another one from 2007, calling them "similar". He said back then the low pressure system had become a cyclone after reaching the Arabian Sea, similar to what was happening now.
He said the cyclone in 2007 had hit the area between Ormara and Pasni, and caused substantial damage in various districts of Balochistan.
Need to activate civic bodies
On Wednesday, Dr Noman Ahmed — a seasoned architect and urban planner — called for preparedness in view of urban flooding threat and inundation of coastal areas.
“There is an immediate need to activate civic bodies for rescue operations and disaster management. Once this impending situation is over, the government should put its act together to find a long-term solution to urban flooding that the city frequently faces,” he said.
According to Dr Ahmed, Karachi’s flooding is mainly connected to encroachment of its stormwater drains. “We have also seen that rainwater’s drainage has completely been ignored in development works as well as in roads’ carpeting and up-gradation that have been carried out in the city in recent years.”
On the government side, director general Syed Salman Shah of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) explained that vulnerable populations and areas had been identified and a plan of action was ready.
“We are constantly in contact with the Met department and will take action in view of Thursday’s situation. Each district has been provided with two additional suction pumps while big drains in the city have been cleared,” he said.
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